The momentum of high economic growth in Belarus has been exhausted
Belarus’s GDP grew by 0.8% YoY in Q3-2025 after 1.0% in Q2; seasonally adjusted quarterly growth remained near zero. A decline in exports amid weaker demand in Russia was the key factor behind slower output. Domestic demand continued to expand but at a slower pace; the economy remained overheated, with the positive output gap at about 2.2% of potential GDP. The foreign trade deficit in goods and services is preliminarily around 2% of GDP (seasonally adjusted); reserves covered potential outflows by more than 100%. Investment stayed a driver of demand due to the National Bank’s focus on investment lending and quasi-fiscal support, though returns on capital remained low. Consumer activity was high but weakening versus 2023–2024; labor market tightness began to ease slightly. Inflation slowed to ≈5.1% QoQ (annualized, seasonally adjusted), helped by cheaper fruit/vegetables, weaker spillovers from Russia, an overvalued ruble, and tighter price controls, while non-regulated services still rose >10% QoQ.