Belarus’s GDP continued to decline in November 2025, and the extent of economic overheating narrowed sharply
For the eleven months of 2025, GDP grew by 1.3% YoY, and in November alone it declined by ≈0.6% YoY. Industrial output fell to the average monthly level of the prewar year 2021 amid weakened demand in Russia and the exhaustion of labor resources not engaged in production. Resource constraints also restrained construction activity and are likely to limit the effectiveness of the National Bank’s efforts to stimulate investment in the future. Support to GDP in November came from a small increase in the ICT sector and a restrained rise in household consumer spending.
If no unexpected strong positive shocks occur in December or Belstat does not significantly revise upward its GDP growth estimates for Q3-2025 at the end of the year, Belarus’s economy will grow by 1.1% in 2025 overall. This would correspond to a decline in GDP in Q4-2025 and a reduction of the positive output gap to slightly below 1%. Economic overheating has declined substantially, mainly due to weaker external demand, which translated into lower pro-inflationary pressure. Inflation in December of this year is expected to be close to 7% YoY.
Against the backdrop of slowing economic activity and inflation, maintaining a soft economic policy in 2026 appears the most likely outcome. However, the scope for a significant increase in stimulus is limited by weak potential for budget revenue growth and the risk of an acceleration in price growth due to the accumulated inflationary overhang.