The economy will return to a balanced growth trajectory in 2026–2027 after overheating in 2024–2025
GDP growth will slow from around 4% in 2023–2024 to about 1.1% in 2025 and 0.5–1.5% in 2026. The slowdown of the Russian economy and the absence of space for a significant strengthening of domestic stimuli will limit the growth of economic activity in Belarus from the demand side. The exhaustion of the potential to engage unused labor resources in production and the low return on investment will become restraining factors on the supply side. The contribution of aggregate demand and the tight labor market to price growth will decline in 2026, but this decline will be offset by the partial materialization of the inflationary overhang and increases in administered prices and tariffs. As a result, inflation will remain close to 7% YoY in 2026. The deficit of foreign trade in goods and services is projected at around 2% of GDP in 2026, corresponding to moderate Belarusian ruble depreciation of 3–7% for the year in terms of the currency basket.
