Belarus’s economy grew by 1.3% in 2025, while the scale of its overheating declined significantly
In Q4-2025, GDP increased by ≈0.4% compared with Q4-2024, following the growth of 0.8% YoY in the previous quarter. This corresponds to the seasonally adjusted GDP volume remaining close to that of the previous period.
Output in Q4-2025 was constrained by a decline in industrial production amid slowing demand in Russia and domestic resource constraints. The volume of construction work also decreased in Q4-2025 amid a slight slowdown in investment demand. Growth in agricultural output and high consumer activity prevented a contraction of GDP at the end of last year. The increase in consumer demand was reflected in a positive contribution of the services sector to GDP growth in Q4-2025.
Economic overheating declined in the second half of last year and is preliminarily estimated at around 1–1.5% in Q4-2025. Inflationary pressure eased under these conditions, and consumer price growth slowed to 6.8% YoY in December 2025. At the same time, the impact of increased labor costs remained inflationary, which was reflected in persistently high price growth for unregulated services.
In Q1-2026, GDP will be close to the level of a year earlier due to subdued demand in the Russian market. Inflation is expected to be around 6.5–7% YoY in January – March. As the National Bank is focused on stimulating economic activity rather than restraining inflation, there is a high probability of a slight easing of monetary conditions during Q1 of the current year.