Inflation in Belarus amounted to 6.8% in 2025 and is projected to be close to 7% by the end of 2026
Annual inflation declined from 7.1% YoY in September to 6.8% YoY in December 2025. The annualized quarterly price growth slowed to 4.4% QoQ in Q4-2025 (seasonally adjusted). A reduction in the degree of economic overheating and slower price growth in Russia contributed to weaker inflationary pressure. Tightening price regulation for a number of vegetables became an additional significant factor in lowering inflation at the end of last year.
In the absence of strong external shocks, inflation will temporarily slow to 6–6.5% YoY in the first half of the year but will return closer to 7% YoY by the end of 2026. The accumulated inflationary overhang will hinder its sustained decline even amid the expected reduction in the contribution of aggregate demand and the labor market. Uncertainty surrounding estimates of the inflationary overhang and firms’ ability to pass it through to prices in the context of slowing domestic demand creates risks of lower inflation this year. By contrast, the likelihood of significant monetary policy easing amid weaker GDP growth in Belarus represents a pro-inflationary risk to the forecast.