Monetary policy in Belarus remained non-restrictive for the growth of domestic demand and consumer prices in 2025
The National Bank actively carried out non-sterilized issuance through purchases of foreign currency and government bonds. The banking system operated in a state of excess liquidity, which translated into maintaining a reduced interbank market rate.
The interest rates in the credit and deposit market stance in Q4-2025 was consistent with the inflation target of 7% YoY for 2026. However, the increase by the National Bank of the inflation target from 5% to 7% is justified not by the need to support the structural transformation of the economy (which was completed in 2023–2024), but by the regulator’s desire to expand room for stimulating economic activity amid a slowdown in GDP growth.
The average broad money in Q4-2025 exceeded the level of the previous year by 16.6% YoY, while real GDP grew by 0.3% YoY over the same period. This points to the monetary nature of inflationary processes in the economy and the unbalanced growth of money supply last year.
The pro-inflationary consequences of excessive monetary expansion were largely offset by a high household saving rate in rubles, which ensured the stability of the foreign exchange market. The Belarusian ruble remained overvalued within 1% in Q4-2025.
The National Bank will continue to maintain non-restrictive monetary conditions in 2026 with a focus on stimulating economic activity. In the absence of strong external shocks, a reduction of the refinancing rate and the average rate on loans in rubles by 0.25–0.75 p.p. over the year is likely.
The Belarusian ruble will weaken moderately – by 2–6% in 2026 in terms of the currency basket. The USD/BYN exchange rate is expected to be in the range of 2.85–3.10 Belarusian rubles per dollar on average in the first half of 2026 and around 3.2–3.4 by the end of the year, with a gradual movement of the USD/RUB rate toward levels of 85–90 Russian rubles per dollar.