Economic activity in Belarus remained subdued in February 2026
GDP increased by ≈0.4% in February compared to January 2026 (seasonally adjusted). Growth was supported by an increase in investment, which was of a corrective nature after weak results in Q4-2025 – the volume of investment fell short of last year’s levels. As a result, the February increase in output did not offset the decline of the previous month: GDP in February was ≈1.15% below the level of February 2025 and approximately corresponded to the level of mid-2024. The decline in manufacturing output amid weakening demand in Russia and exhausted reserves of unused labor resources remained the main “drag” on economic growth. A moderate recovery in the ICT sector and still high, albeit slowing, consumer activity supported GDP.
At the end of Q1-2026, GDP volume will remain below last year’s level by ≈0.7–1.5%. The wide range is due to the high uncertainty regarding the impact of disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz on major industrial sectors and the scale of the negative impact of weather conditions on construction, the hotel and restaurant business in January-February. Overall, economic activity in Q1-2026 is tracking along the lower bound of the February forecast, which increases the likelihood of low growth in the range of 0–1% YoY by the end of the year if “sluggish” business activity in Russia persists. Under the current conditions, the chances of monetary easing and the use of government deposits in the banking system to stimulate domestic demand are high.