The Belarusian economy expanded noticeably in March 2026, but overall showed subdued output dynamics in Q1-2026
In March 2026, Belarus’s GDP increased by more than 1% compared to February. As a result, GDP exceeded the level of March 2025 by ≈1.1%. The main driver of the acceleration in output was a surge in consumer demand, partly associated with the realization of pent-up demand due to the weather conditions of January–February. A record warm March following the cold winter months contributed to a recovery in construction and investment overall.
Overall, in Q1-2026 GDP increased by ≈0.2% compared to Q4-2026. This growth can be interpreted as a stabilization of output after three quarters of slight decline. Temporary strengthening of consumption supported GDP. Negative pressure on output came from a decline in investment demand in Russia and its weakening in Belarus overall during the quarter. In the absence of major shocks, with a gradual recovery of growth in Russia and a correction of domestic consumer activity after the “abnormal” surge in March, cumulative GDP growth in Belarus will approach zero in the coming months and move toward +1% YoY thereafter. The “cooling” of the economy, along with easing labor shortage, creates conditions for inflation to remain close to 6% YoY.