Inflation in Belarus declined significantly in Q3-2025 and is expected to settle near 7.5% YoY by the end of 2025.
Annual inflation stood at 7.1% YoY in September 2025. The annualized quarterly price growth slowed more than twofold – to 5.1% QoQ in Q3-2025 (seasonally adjusted). The decline in inflation was driven by a corrective drop in fruit and vegetable prices, weaker price pressure from the Russian market, the overvaluation of the Belarusian ruble, and tighter price controls on selected items in the consumer basket. At the same time, the acceleration in price growth for non-regulated services – remaining above 10% QoQ – indicates the persistence of inflationary pressure from overheated domestic demand and the labor market.
The baseline inflation forecast for the end of 2025 has been lowered to 7–8% YoY. The risks of a poor harvest did not materialize, and economic activity in Belarus is developing closer to the lower bound of expectations. Nevertheless, the level of domestic demand remains elevated relative to output potential, and the inflationary overhang is still significant. Consequently, inflation in 2026 is projected to remain above the National Bank’s medium-term 5% target – in the range of 7–8% YoY.