Belarus’s economy continued to slow down in October 2025
For the ten months of 2025, GDP grew by 1.5% YoY, and in October alone – by ≈0.6% YoY. The volume of GDP (seasonally adjusted) in October decreased by ≈1% compared to the September level and returned to the values of spring 2024. The key factor in the reduction of output was the decline in industrial production, the volume of which fell slightly below the levels of the second half of 2023. Weakening demand in Russia, combined with increased competition in the Russian market and the reached limit of involving free labor and capital in production, is hindering export-oriented sectors of the economy. Domestic demand in October increased due to the growth of investments in construction, while consumer activity stagnated amidst slowed lending and reduced consumer confidence.
If the output volume remains at the October level in November-December, GDP will grow by 1.1–1.2% YoY for 2025 as a whole. This dynamic will correspond to a significant reduction in the economy’s overheating, a decrease in price pressure, and the preservation of inflation near 7% YoY or even slightly lower. To ensure GDP growth at the level of 1.5% YoY for the year, its volume in November-December must grow by a little more than 1% monthly. In the current conditions of subdued demand in Russia, such a dynamic is possible in the event of a temporary significant strengthening of internal stimuli through the easing of lending conditions and an increase in budget expenditures.