Belarus’s GDP grew by 3% YoY in Q2-2026
Over the half-year, GDP grew by 1.5% YoY, and in June alone by ≈3.5% YoY. Compared to May 2026, output edged slightly downward (seasonally adjusted). However, thanks to strong dynamics in the spring months, Q2 GDP growth as a whole became the highest in more than a year – at around 3% YoY. The acceleration in output growth was supported by strengthening domestic consumer and investment demand in an environment of stimulative economic policy, as well as the action of idiosyncratic factors (rising prices and demand for Belarusian fertilizers in external markets due to the Hormuz crisis, expanded tolling oil processing, and the influence of weather conditions and calendar effects). As a result, GDP in Q2-2026 exceeded the average 2021 level by ≈7.3%.
In July–August, output dynamics will be volatile due to the influence of the harvest campaign. Nevertheless, accumulated GDP growth has a high probability of reaching 2% YoY in Q3-2026, and coming in at 1.5–2.5% YoY for the year as a whole. The wide range is driven by high uncertainty in external conditions. The influence of destructive non-economic factors on the state of the Russian economy is becoming an increasingly significant risk for the Belarusian economy. If the state of the fuel market in Russia does not deteriorate further, the balance of supply and demand in it recovers, and no other infrastructure complications arise, then Belarus’s GDP growth will come in closer to the upper bound of the forecast range. The same uncertainty factors apply to the inflation outlook as well. In the baseline scenario, an increase from 4.3% YoY in June to 5–6% YoY by year-end is expected. An easing of price controls in July could spur growth in non-food goods prices. However, there is a high probability that this growth will be moderate, and that the low goods price growth rates observed in 2023–2026 relative to services were to a significant degree a regional phenomenon associated with the transformation of competition mechanisms against the backdrop of the development of online trade.