The Belarusian economy could overheat in the context of continued monetary stimuli in May.
Over the five months of 2023, Belarus’s GDP increased by 0.9% (YoY) and by ≈7.1% (YoY) in Mayonly (Figure 1). Economic activity remained on a growth trajectory: the volume of seasonally adjusted GDP rose by ≈1.2% compared to April 2023 and it was slightly more than 1% higher than its monthly average in 2019. The high growth rate of the economy in recent months has been supported by significant strengthening of domestic demand fueled by loose monetary policy.