Inflation in Belarus decreased in Q1-2026 and is projected to be around 6–7% YoY by the end of 2026
Annual inflation slowed from 6.8% YoY in December 2025 to 5.4% YoY in March 2026, while the annualized quarterly price growth declined to 3.5% QoQ in Q1-2026 (seasonally adjusted). The postponement of utility tariff increases was the main reason for the decline in inflation. Aggregate demand and the labor market remained pro-inflationary at the beginning of the current year, supporting high growth rates in prices for non-regulated services. At the same time, the contribution of domestic factors to consumer price growth did not expand in Q1-2026 and is estimated to be lower compared to the local peak in the first half of 2025.
In the baseline scenario, inflation is projected to recover to 6–7% YoY by the end of 2026 amid the maintenance of non-restrictive monetary conditions and high budget expenditures. From the external sector, moderate pro-inflationary effects are expected due to rising global commodity prices and logistics costs. Uncertainty regarding the magnitude and duration of these effects remains high due to the difficulty of assessing the development of the military conflict in the Middle East. Belarus’s focus on Russia and China could limit the impact of the external shock, as these countries are potentially less susceptible to increasing inflation due to rising commodity prices compared to the EU.