Inflation in Belarus remained low in Q2-2026, but the easing of price controls from July will lead to its moderate increase by year-end
Annual inflation slowed from 5.4% YoY in March to 4.3% YoY in June 2026, while the annualized quarterly price growth came in at 4.3% QoQ in Q2-2026 (seasonally adjusted). A strong ruble and strict government regulation constrained consumer goods price growth. At the same time, non-regulated services continued to rise in price at a high pace due to the persisting pro-inflationary stance of domestic demand and the labor market.
In July, the government substantially eased price regulation, removing virtually all non-food goods from the scope of Resolution No. 713. As a result, the share of items regulated under Resolution No. 713 in the consumer basket decreased from around 45% to approximately 28%. The easing of price controls amid high consumer demand and significantly increased labor costs will be accompanied by a release of the inflationary overhang. At the same time, the baseline scenario forecasts that the acceleration of inflation will be moderate – to 5–6% YoY by the end of the current year. A divergence in relative goods and services prices in Russia in 2023–2026 similar to that observed in Belarus gives grounds to suggest that the extremely low non-food goods price growth rates in recent years were driven not only by state regulation, but were also a regional phenomenon observed against the backdrop of the rapid development of online trade and the expansion of Russian marketplaces in the Belarusian market. Nevertheless, uncertainty surrounding the estimate of the inflationary overhang and the evolution of the situation in Russia’s fuel market generates significant risks to the forecast.