The Belarusian economy slowed down in Q4-2024, but GDP remained high amid a loose domestic economic policy
Belarusian GDP grew by 4% in 2024, with 2.4–2.5% YoY in Q4-2024 after 3.8% in Q3. GDP stayed near a historical peak at ≈2.4% above the balanced level; overheating remained significant but eased in H2 due to weakening exports and slow potential growth amid moderate investment. Labor shortages persisted (unemployment below 3%; <0.9 unemployed per vacancy), pushing real wages to almost 30% above the 2021 average. Consumer demand remained strong, supported by income growth, lending and optimism (CCI at 3% in Feb 2025). Foreign trade turned to a 1.7% of GDP deficit in 2024, pressuring the FX market, partially offset by high net household FX sales; the ruble stayed near its equilibrium REER. Inflationary pressures from demand and the labor market were high but contained by administrative measures; non-regulated services rose strongly. The National Bank took no active monetary steps and relied on price controls; market rates rose toward year-end driven by Russia’s high rates, exceeding neutral levels but without materially restricting credit. Fiscal policy remained stimulative with spending up 5–6% in real terms; the consolidated budget likely ran a small surplus on overheating-driven revenues and Russian grants.