Monetary policy in Belarus remained subordinated to the goal of stimulating investment activity rather than ensuring price stability
In Q3-2025, the National Bank actively issued rubles through the purchase of government bonds and foreign currency and did not withdraw excess liquidity at auctions. The interbank market rate remained extremely low, and the average deposit yield declined significantly. The average rate on market loans remained close to equilibrium in an environment of elevated risks of corporate lending. Overall, interest rate conditions are assessed as weakly stimulating demand in the economy in Q3-2025. The Belarusian ruble was overvalued by ≈1% in Q3-2025.
Monetary conditions will remain non-restrictive for economic activity in 2026, primarily due to interest rates. Monetary policy will not become tight, as inflation remaining near 7% YoY is acceptable to the authorities, while the government’s GDP growth target of 2.8% in 2026 significantly exceeds its balanced pace of around 1.5–2%. The absence of clear rules in conducting monetary policy reduces its predictability, which is a significant source of uncertainty for the macroeconomic forecast for the coming year.