Belarus’s GDP returned to peak levels in April 2026
In January – April 2026, GDP grew by 0.2% YoY, while in April alone it increased by ≈1.8% YoY. Compared to March 2026, output rose by ≈0.6% (seasonally adjusted). The recovery in oil refining had a positive effect on industrial and transport indicators, while increased energy generation amid the cold April weather provided an additional temporary boost to output. At the beginning of Q2-2026, value added in the information and communications sector increased sharply. Due to the specifics of statistical accounting, this indicates a significant rise in employment in the ICT sector. It may be assumed that tighter mobile communications restrictions in Russia led to the transfer of part of the functionality of Russian ICT businesses to their Belarusian divisions, accompanied by the reassignment of some employees. This hypothesis requires further verification.
Consumer demand in Belarus declined in April after the March spike (caused by a surge in automobile sales), but remained elevated relative to potential output. Investment activity continued to recover following weak results at the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026.
Accumulated GDP growth by the end of the first five months is expected to be close to 0.5% YoY and is projected to move toward 1% YoY during the year. High budget expenditures and accommodative monetary conditions will support domestic demand, while the “revival” of business activity in Russia will contribute to the recovery of manufacturing industries. Inflation will remain around 5% YoY in May-June amid a strong Belarusian ruble and strict price controls.
Modest GDP growth and moderate inflationary pressure led the National Bank to lower the refinancing rate by 0.5 p.p., effective June 1, to 9.25%. This decision was expected and will not have a significant impact on financial market interest rates: the average interest rate on term deposits will remain low amid a structural liquidity surplus, and the average interest rate on new market loans will continue to slowly decline to the 10.5–11% range.