Belarus’s GDP reached a new all-time high in May 2026
In January – May 2026, GDP grew by 0.9% YoY, while in May alone it increased by ≈3.7% YoY. Compared to April 2026, output rose by more than 1% and reached a new peak (seasonally adjusted). A sharp increase in construction activity and the recovery of manufacturing became the main drivers of GDP acceleration in May. This was supported by stronger investment and consumer demand amid non-restrictive lending conditions, rising household incomes, high budget expenditures, and administrative stimulation of capital investment. It is also likely that the sharp increase in construction activity was partly related to the specifics of accounting for commissioned facilities, which suggests that a correction may be expected in the coming months. Additional support for output continued to come from strong demand for fertilizers and food products in external markets, as well as increased processing of tolling oil.
The acceleration of GDP growth to almost 4% YoY in May is not sustainable, as its long-term potential growth rate remains within 2% YoY under current institutional, resource, and technological constraints. Nevertheless, the broad-based return to growth across economic sectors and the continuation of stimulative economic policies provide grounds for cautious optimism regarding Belarus’s economic growth this year. In June, GDP growth will remain close to or slightly above 4% YoY, while cumulative growth for the first half of the year is expected to be around 1.5% YoY. The GDP growth forecast for 2026 may be revised upward from 0.5–1.5% to 1.5–2.5% soon. Favorable terms of trade offset the negative effects of unbalanced domestic demand growth on the external trade position and the exchange rate. Inflationary consequences will be noticeable in the form of persistently high price growth in non-regulated services. However, a strong ruble and strict price controls are highly likely to keep inflation within 5–6% YoY by the end of 2026.