Loose monetary conditions become a threat to price and financial stability. Monetary conditions remained loose in Q2-2023. On the one hand, the undervaluation of the Belarusian ruble neutralized, and the Belarusian ruble was overvalued at the beginning of Q3-2023. However,…
Inflation remained low in Q2-2023, but domestic demand price pressures intensified. The annual increase in prices in June rewrote the historical low and amounted to 2.9% (YoY). Annual inflation will remain close to 2% (YoY) in Q3-2023, constrained by the…
Belarusian GDP could exceed its equilibrium in Q2-2023. In June, the GDP of Belarus grew by ≈7.1% (YoY) and by 6.1% (YoY) in Q2-2023. In June 2023, GDP volume (seasonally adjusted) increased by ≈0.15–0.4% compared to May 2023. On the…
The Belarusian economy could overheat in the context of continued monetary stimuli in May.Over the five months of 2023, Belarus’s GDP increased by 0.9% (YoY) and by ≈7.1% (YoY) in Mayonly (Figure 1). Economic activity remained on a growth trajectory:…
We present a new issue of the analytical bulletin “The Consumer Confidence Index” within the project Belarus Economy Monitor.
Loose monetary conditions amplify inflationary risks. In Q1-2023, monetary conditions kept stimulating economic activity and were pro-inflationary. Interest rates on Belarusian ruble loans and deposits rewrote their historical lows again in the context of the National Bank’s implementation of its…
Belarus’ GDP continued growing in April.In April 2023, the Belarusian economy grew by ≈4% versus April 2022. GDP (seasonally adjusted) increased by ≈0.8–0.9% by March 2023. The economy’s adaptation to sanctions leadsto a gradual output recovery, but its volume in…
Inflation indicators in Q1-2023 had multidirectional dynamics unusual for Belarus. On the one hand, consumer prices returned to growth on average after an administrative decline in Q4-2022: annualized inflation was 6.4% (QoQ) in Q1-2023. Pro-inflationary pressure has prerequisites for strengthening…
Belarusian GDP kept recovery dynamics in March. GDP decreased by 2.1% (YoY) in Q1-2023. In particular, output increased by ≈0.7% (YoY) in March after declining by ≈1.9% (YoY) in February. A partial output recovery because of the economy’s adaptation to…
Belarusian economy will show its corrective growth in 2023–2024, provided there are no new logistical gaps and significantly tightening sanctions The country’s GDP will grow by 2.5% in 2023 and by 1.1% in 2024 if the upgraded supply chains are…