This page presents an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Belarus, as well as a bulletin “Macroeconomic Forecast for Belarus”. The bulletin presents a forecast of the key macroeconomic indicators of the Belarusian economy for up to two years; it is based on the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) for Belarus.
The economy will return to a balanced growth trajectory in 2026–2027 after overheating in 2024–2025 GDP growth will slow from around 4% in 2023–2024 to about 1.1% in 2025 and 0.5–1.5% in 2026. The slowdown of the Russian economy and…
The momentum of high economic growth in Belarus has been exhausted Belarus’s GDP grew by 0.8% YoY in Q3-2025 after 1.0% in Q2; seasonally adjusted quarterly growth remained near zero. A decline in exports amid weaker demand in Russia was…
Economic growth in Belarus slowed in Q2-2025 amid intensification of inflationary processes Belarus’ GDP grew by 1.1% YoY in Q2-2025 after 3.2% YoY in Q1; seasonally adjusted quarterly growth was near zero, keeping output at a historical peak well above…
Monetary policy loosening will support increased GDP growth in Belarus in 2025, but at the cost of heightened inflationary pressure and a greater risk of economic volatility if external conditions deteriorate. The GDP growth forecast for Belarus in 2025 has…
Belarus’ economy accelerated in Q1-2025 due to stronger domestic demand Belarus’ GDP grew by 3.1% in Q1-2025 compared to Q1-2024, following an increase of 2.5% YoY in Q4-2024. After adjusting for seasonal factors, quarterly GDP growth is estimated at ≈1.7–1.8%…