Monetary conditions eased in Q3-2026 and will continue to support domestic demand in the medium term
The National Bank avoided auction operations to withdraw the structural liquidity surplus of the banking system and reduced the estimated values of standard risk to influence financial market rates. Interest rates on ruble market loans and term deposits declined by about 1 p.p. over Q3-2026. The aggregate state of interbank and credit-deposit market rates was stimulative for domestic demand. The easing of lending conditions translated into stronger credit activity and accelerated money supply growth in Q3-2026. The volume of money in the economy exceeded the level of a year earlier by 20.5%, which, with real GDP growth of 2.9% over this period, led to a build-up of the money overhang. The Belarusian ruble exchange rate was close to its equilibrium level: net foreign currency sales by households and non-residents offset net demand for it from firms.
Monetary conditions are expected to be moderately accommodative in Q4-2026 – 2027. Approaching the planned GDP and investment growth rates (set by the government), in the absence of radical changes in the external military-political situation, will require the authorities to maintain stimulus for domestic demand. The baseline scenario assumes that the National Bank will not respond with policy tightening to the expected acceleration of inflation to 6–7% in 2027 and will continue to prioritize support for business activity. Rates on loans and deposits are forecast below neutral levels in 2027. The Belarusian ruble will weaken by 2–4% over 2027 in basket-of-currencies terms amid an external trade deficit.