Express Analysis. August 2024
Belarus’ GDP growth accelerated in July due to climate factors, but an adjustment decline will occur in August. GDP grew by 5.5% YoY in January – July 2024, and it grew by ≈8.4% YoY in July only. Fluctuations in the…
Macroby
Inflation Review. Q2-2024
Inflation in Belarus remained subdued in Q2-2024, and it will be 5–7% at the end of 2024. Annual inflation increased from 5.55% (YoY) in March 2024 to 5.84% (YoY) in June 2024, and annualized quarterly price growth (seasonally adjusted) grew…
Express Analysis. July 2024
Belarus’ GDP growth greatly exceeded its balanced rate in Q2-2024, but its dynamics weakened in May–June. GDP grew by 5% YoY in January–June 2024, and it grew by ≈3.8% YoY in June only. Seasonally adjusted output remained near the level…
The Consumer Confidence Index. July 2024
According to the quarterly household monitoring data, the Consumer Confidence Index together with its components grew again in July 2024, this time reaching the threshold of 0% (under the Eurostat methodology).
Express Analysis. June 2024
Belarusian economy grew in May, and if there are no logistics disruptions or sharp tightening of domestic economic policy, GDP growth could be over 4% in 2024. GDP grew by 5.2% YoY in January-May 2024, and by ≈5.6% YoY in…
Fiscal Environment Review 2023
Fiscal policy in Belarus supported economic activity in 2023 with a budget execution surplus. In 2023, the consolidated budget was executed with a surplus of 1.1% of GDP. Budget revenues grew by 4.6 percentage points of GDP due to high…
Monetary Environment Review Q1-2024
Monetary stimulus will shrink in 2024, but not enough to address threats to macroeconomic stability. Monetary conditions remained loose in Q1-2024 in Belarus, but their stimulus for economic activity decreased due to higher interest rates in the credit and deposit…
Express Analysis. May 2024
Belarus’ GDP continued growing in April, and the likelihood of the growth to get close to 3% or higher in 2024 has increased significantly. GDP grew by 5.1% YoY over the four months of 2024, and it grew by ≈7.6%…
The Consumer Confidence Index. May 2024
According to the quarterly household monitoring data, the Consumer Confidence Index — along with its components — slightly decreased and amounted to -4.8% (under the Rosstat methodology) in May 2024.
Inflation Review. Q1-2024
“Schrödinger’s inflation” poses threats to the macroeconomic stability of Belarus in the medium term. Annual inflation fell from 5.8% (YoY) in December 2023 to 5.6% (YoY) in March 2024, and annualized quarterly price growth (seasonally adjusted) fell from 8.5% (QoQ)…