The Monetary Environment Review Bulletin presents an expert analysis of the monetary and foreign exchange rate policies and the resulting monetary conditions in the Belarusian economy. The bulletin reviews the actions under the monetary and exchange rate policies, their impact on the economy, the nature of monetary conditions, and provides their short-term forecast. The methodological basis for the analysis is the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) for the Belarusian economy.
The Fiscal Environment Review bulletin provides expert analysis of fiscal policy and debt sustainability of the Republic of Belarus. The bulletin assesses the state of fiscal policy, its impact on economic activity in Belarus, the state of public debt and its sustainability.
Monetary policy in Belarus remained subordinated to the goal of stimulating investment activity rather than ensuring price stability In Q3-2025, the National Bank actively issued rubles through the purchase of government bonds and foreign currency and did not withdraw excess…
Monetary conditions eased somewhat in Q2-2025 Interest rates on loans and deposits declined in real terms due to accelerating inflation. On average, rates fell slightly below neutral levels. This contributed to maintaining overheated domestic demand and hindered its quick return to…
Monetary conditions were neutral in Q1-2025, but monetary policy became resistant to tightening Interest rates on loans and deposits exceeded their neutral levels in Q1-2025.However, the extent of this excess was modest and, amid strong domestic demand, the contractionary impact…
Monetary conditions were neutral in Q4-2024, insufficient to cool overheated demand. Interest rates on loans and deposits exceeded neutral levels in Q4-2024, driven by rising interest rates in Russia. This factor, independent of the National Bank’s monetary policy, will continue…
Monetary conditions in Belarus reached a neutral level in Q3-2024. The interbank market rate remained nearly unchanged from Q2-2024 and stayed significantly below the neutral level. The National Bank’s increase in reserve requirements proved ineffective in an environment of fiscal…
Monetary conditions remained moderately loose in Q2-2024, and the National Bank was late in responding to inflation risks. Real interest rates on loans and deposits remained almost unchanged compared to Q1-2024. Interest rates fell slightly short of neutral levels, which…
Fiscal policy in Belarus supported economic activity in 2023 with a budget execution surplus. In 2023, the consolidated budget was executed with a surplus of 1.1% of GDP. Budget revenues grew by 4.6 percentage points of GDP due to high…
Monetary stimulus will shrink in 2024, but not enough to address threats to macroeconomic stability. Monetary conditions remained loose in Q1-2024 in Belarus, but their stimulus for economic activity decreased due to higher interest rates in the credit and deposit…
Monetary conditions will become less stimulative in 2024, but the National Bank cannot explain what degree of their strictness corresponds to ensuring macroeconomic stability. Monetary conditions remained loose in Q4-2023 mainly due to low interest rates in the credit and…