The Monetary Environment Review Bulletin presents an expert analysis of the monetary and foreign exchange rate policies and the resulting monetary conditions in the Belarusian economy. The bulletin reviews the actions under the monetary and exchange rate policies, their impact on the economy, the nature of monetary conditions, and provides their short-term forecast. The methodological basis for the analysis is the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) for the Belarusian economy.
The Fiscal Environment Review bulletin provides expert analysis of fiscal policy and debt sustainability of the Republic of Belarus. The bulletin assesses the state of fiscal policy, its impact on economic activity in Belarus, the state of public debt and its sustainability.
Monetary stimulus will shrink in 2024, but not enough to address threats to macroeconomic stability. Monetary conditions remained loose in Q1-2024 in Belarus, but their stimulus for economic activity decreased due to higher interest rates in the credit and deposit…
Monetary conditions will become less stimulative in 2024, but the National Bank cannot explain what degree of their strictness corresponds to ensuring macroeconomic stability. Monetary conditions remained loose in Q4-2023 mainly due to low interest rates in the credit and…
Ensuring macroeconomic stability comes into increasing conflict with the ongoing monetary policy. Monetary conditions remained stimulating for economic activity in Q3-2023. Loose monetary conditions were supported by low interest rates in the credit and deposit market, which remained below their…
Loose monetary conditions become a threat to price and financial stability. Monetary conditions remained loose in Q2-2023. On the one hand, the undervaluation of the Belarusian ruble neutralized, and the Belarusian ruble was overvalued at the beginning of Q3-2023. However,…
Loose monetary conditions amplify inflationary risks. In Q1-2023, monetary conditions kept stimulating economic activity and were pro-inflationary. Interest rates on Belarusian ruble loans and deposits rewrote their historical lows again in the context of the National Bank’s implementation of its…
Degree of monetary conditions easiness lowered in Q4-2022. Monetary conditions remained stimulative in Q4-2022, but the scale of economic activity support decreased. In Q4-2022, the Belarusian ruble strengthened on average against the currencies of the countries that were Belarus’ main…