Belarus’s economy continued to grow in Q3-2026. It is projected to expand by 2–2.3% for the full year 2026 and by 1.5% in 2027.
– Belarus’s GDP grew by 2.9% in Q3-2026 relative to Q3-2025, while over nine months as a whole the economy grew by 2% YoY. Consumer demand acted as the growth driver under stimulative domestic economic policy and the spillover effects of temporary positive export impulses seen from late 2025 through the first half of 2026. The decline in investment activity and subdued demand in the Russian market constrained GDP dynamics.
– The deficit in foreign trade in goods and services is preliminarily estimated at around 2% of GDP in Q3-2026 (seasonally adjusted). Imports increased amid elevated consumer demand, while export dynamics are estimated as near zero due to weakening investment activity in Russia.
– Inflation accelerated moderately – from 4.3% YoY in June to 4.7% YoY in October. Inflation rose as a result of the adjustment of non-food goods prices to macroeconomic conditions following their removal from state regulation in July. The response of prices to the easing of price controls turned out to be moderate, which is likely associated with increased competition in the goods market due to the expansion of Russian marketplaces.
– Fiscal policy had a stimulative stance in Q3-2026. The forgiveness of part of the public debt, judging by indirect data, ensured the execution of the consolidated budget with a moderate surplus for nine months and allowed the authorities to maintain a high volume of government expenditures. Budget expenditures will remain high in 2027. The consolidated budget deficit will not exceed 1% of GDP in 2027, and public debt is expected close to 20% of GDP.
– Monetary conditions supported domestic demand in Q3-2026 and will remain accommodative in 2027. Interest rates on loans and deposits declined by approximately 1 p.p. over Q3, and money supply growth accelerated to 20.5% YoY on average in Q3. The low growth potential of the Belarusian economy and the forecast subdued growth of Russia’s economy make the achievement of the authorities’ targets for GDP and investment growth of 1.9% and 3.1%, respectively, in 2027 challenging. In the absence of positive changes in the external environment, approaching the planned values will require maintaining stimulus for domestic demand. The average refinancing rate is forecast at around 8.5–9% in 2027.
– GDP growth will amount to around 2–2.3% for 2026 (more likely near the upper bound) and is forecast close to 1.5% in 2027. Domestic demand will remain the driver of output expansion thanks to the continuation of monetary and fiscal stimulus. Subdued growth of Russia’s economy of 1–1.5% in 2027, sanctions, and domestic resource constraints will limit the growth of the Belarusian economy in 2027 even amid accommodative economic policy.
– The external trade position will remain in a moderate deficit of around 1–1.5% of GDP in 2026–2027 amid overheated domestic consumer demand and subdued demand in the Russian market. The Belarusian ruble will weaken by 2–4% in 2027 in basket-of-currencies terms.
– Inflation is expected at around 4.8–5.3% YoY in December 2026 and 6–7% in 2027. Stimulative economic policy, the money overhang formed as a result of its prolonged application, and high wage growth will maintain moderate pro-inflationary pressure. Price controls in the food segment and high competition in goods markets will continue to constrain price growth.
– Risks of deviations from the baseline forecast remain high and two-sided. Changes in the military-political situation in the region are the key factor of uncertainty.
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(results of the autumn survey wave)