Fiscal policy in Belarus supported economic activity in 2023 with a budget execution surplus. In 2023, the consolidated budget was executed with a surplus of 1.1% of GDP. Budget revenues grew by 4.6 percentage points of GDP due to high…
Monetary stimulus will shrink in 2024, but not enough to address threats to macroeconomic stability. Monetary conditions remained loose in Q1-2024 in Belarus, but their stimulus for economic activity decreased due to higher interest rates in the credit and deposit…
Belarus’ GDP continued growing in April, and the likelihood of the growth to get close to 3% or higher in 2024 has increased significantly. GDP grew by 5.1% YoY over the four months of 2024, and it grew by ≈7.6%…
According to the quarterly household monitoring data, the Consumer Confidence Index — along with its components — slightly decreased and amounted to -4.8% (under the Rosstat methodology) in May 2024.
“Schrödinger’s inflation” poses threats to the macroeconomic stability of Belarus in the medium term. Annual inflation fell from 5.8% (YoY) in December 2023 to 5.6% (YoY) in March 2024, and annualized quarterly price growth (seasonally adjusted) fell from 8.5% (QoQ)…
Growth of Belarusian GDP exceeded expectations in Q1-2024, but its quality looks increasingly alarming for macroeconomic stability. In Q1-2024, GDP grew by 4.1% YoY, including a ≈4.4% YoY growth in March. Seasonally adjusted output grew by over 1% in March…
The Belarusian economy will slow down in 2024 and will stagnate in 2025 due to the exhaustion of extensive growth factors The Belarusian GDP will grow by 2.1% in 2024 following its 3.9% growth in 2023. The effectiveness of economic…
The leap year factor contributed to a temporary increase in the Belarusian GDP growth rate in February 2024. GDP grew by 4% (YoY) over two months of 2024: it grew by ≈5.3% (YoY) in February following a 2.8% increase (YoY)…
Belarus continued enjoying its expanded discount for the Urals oil versus the Brent oil, which was estimated at ≈ $1.9 billion in 2023 and ≈$3.6 billion in 2022–2023 altogether. In 2023, Belarus will likely continue to buy Urals oil at…
Monetary conditions will become less stimulative in 2024, but the National Bank cannot explain what degree of their strictness corresponds to ensuring macroeconomic stability. Monetary conditions remained loose in Q4-2023 mainly due to low interest rates in the credit and…