Inflation in Belarus remained subdued in Q2-2024, and it will be 5–7% at the end of 2024. Annual inflation increased from 5.55% (YoY) in March 2024 to 5.84% (YoY) in June 2024, and annualized quarterly price growth (seasonally adjusted) grew…
Belarus’ GDP growth greatly exceeded its balanced rate in Q2-2024, but its dynamics weakened in May–June. GDP grew by 5% YoY in January–June 2024, and it grew by ≈3.8% YoY in June only. Seasonally adjusted output remained near the level…
According to the quarterly household monitoring data, the Consumer Confidence Index together with its components grew again in July 2024, this time reaching the threshold of 0% (under the Eurostat methodology).
Belarusian economy grew in May, and if there are no logistics disruptions or sharp tightening of domestic economic policy, GDP growth could be over 4% in 2024. GDP grew by 5.2% YoY in January-May 2024, and by ≈5.6% YoY in…
Fiscal policy in Belarus supported economic activity in 2023 with a budget execution surplus. In 2023, the consolidated budget was executed with a surplus of 1.1% of GDP. Budget revenues grew by 4.6 percentage points of GDP due to high…
Monetary stimulus will shrink in 2024, but not enough to address threats to macroeconomic stability. Monetary conditions remained loose in Q1-2024 in Belarus, but their stimulus for economic activity decreased due to higher interest rates in the credit and deposit…
Belarus’ GDP continued growing in April, and the likelihood of the growth to get close to 3% or higher in 2024 has increased significantly. GDP grew by 5.1% YoY over the four months of 2024, and it grew by ≈7.6%…
According to the quarterly household monitoring data, the Consumer Confidence Index — along with its components — slightly decreased and amounted to -4.8% (under the Rosstat methodology) in May 2024.
“Schrödinger’s inflation” poses threats to the macroeconomic stability of Belarus in the medium term. Annual inflation fell from 5.8% (YoY) in December 2023 to 5.6% (YoY) in March 2024, and annualized quarterly price growth (seasonally adjusted) fell from 8.5% (QoQ)…
Growth of Belarusian GDP exceeded expectations in Q1-2024, but its quality looks increasingly alarming for macroeconomic stability. In Q1-2024, GDP grew by 4.1% YoY, including a ≈4.4% YoY growth in March. Seasonally adjusted output grew by over 1% in March…