The Belarusian economy could overheat in the context of continued monetary stimuli in May.Over the five months of 2023, Belarus’s GDP increased by 0.9% (YoY) and by ≈7.1% (YoY) in Mayonly (Figure 1). Economic activity remained on a growth trajectory:…
We present a new issue of the analytical bulletin “The Consumer Confidence Index” within the project Belarus Economy Monitor.
Loose monetary conditions amplify inflationary risks. In Q1-2023, monetary conditions kept stimulating economic activity and were pro-inflationary. Interest rates on Belarusian ruble loans and deposits rewrote their historical lows again in the context of the National Bank’s implementation of its…
Belarus’ GDP continued growing in April.In April 2023, the Belarusian economy grew by ≈4% versus April 2022. GDP (seasonally adjusted) increased by ≈0.8–0.9% by March 2023. The economy’s adaptation to sanctions leadsto a gradual output recovery, but its volume in…
Inflation indicators in Q1-2023 had multidirectional dynamics unusual for Belarus. On the one hand, consumer prices returned to growth on average after an administrative decline in Q4-2022: annualized inflation was 6.4% (QoQ) in Q1-2023. Pro-inflationary pressure has prerequisites for strengthening…
Belarusian GDP kept recovery dynamics in March. GDP decreased by 2.1% (YoY) in Q1-2023. In particular, output increased by ≈0.7% (YoY) in March after declining by ≈1.9% (YoY) in February. A partial output recovery because of the economy’s adaptation to…
Belarusian economy will show its corrective growth in 2023–2024, provided there are no new logistical gaps and significantly tightening sanctions The country’s GDP will grow by 2.5% in 2023 and by 1.1% in 2024 if the upgraded supply chains are…
The GDP of Belarus decreased by 3.6% (YoY) in the first two months of 2023. In February alone, this decrease in the indicator was estimated at ≈1.9% (YoY) after a ≈5.0% (YoY) decrease in January. The GDP volume (seasonally adjusted)…
Household monitoring data indicate that the Consumer Confidence Index, together with its components, continues to recover after a significant decline at the beginning of the war.
In 2022, a significant price decline for the Russian Urals oil versus the Brent oil pricing has likely brought and is bringing unexpectedly large benefits for Belarus. In 2022, Belarus purchased oil from Russia at an average price of presumably…