Express Analysis

Belarus’ GDP continued growing in April, and the likelihood of the growth to get close to 3% or higher in 2024 has increased significantly. GDP grew by 5.1% YoY over the four months of 2024, and it grew by ≈7.6%…

Growth of Belarusian GDP exceeded expectations in Q1-2024, but its quality looks increasingly alarming for macroeconomic stability. In Q1-2024, GDP grew by 4.1% YoY, including a ≈4.4% YoY growth in March. Seasonally adjusted output grew by over 1% in March…

The leap year factor contributed to a temporary increase in the Belarusian GDP growth rate in February 2024. GDP grew by 4% (YoY) over two months of 2024: it grew by ≈5.3% (YoY) in February following a 2.8% increase (YoY)…

Belarus continued enjoying its expanded discount for the Urals oil versus the Brent oil, which was estimated at ≈ $1.9 billion in 2023 and ≈$3.6 billion in 2022–2023 altogether. In 2023, Belarus will likely continue to buy Urals oil at…

Economic activity in Belarus continued to weaken. GDP grew by 2.8% (YoY) in January 2024 following a ≈4% growth (YoY) in December 2023. Weakening dynamics in the manufacturing sector and a drop in the construction sector led to a slowdown…

The Belarusian economy slows down, and the Belarusian authorities may prioritize curbing inflation in 2024. GDP grew by 3.9% in 2023. The output dynamics weakened at the year-end: annual growth slowed from 6.2% YoY in Q3-2023 to ≈4.9% YoY in…

Extensive growth of the Belarusian economy hits its ceiling due to production capacity limitations. Belarusian GDP grew by 3.8% (YoY) over 11 months of 2023, including a ≈3.8% growth (YoY) in November 2023. GDP (seasonally adjusted) remained above its equilibrium…

Economy remains overheated despite weakening growth impulse. GDP grew by 3.8% (YoY) over the 10 months of 2023, including a ≈5.9% growth (YoY) in October 2023. In October, the volume of GDP (seasonally adjusted) remained close to the September level.…

The scale of economic overheating becomes extremely dangerous for macroeconomic and financial stability. GDP grew by 3.5% (YoY) over the nine months of 2023, including a ≈6.3% growth (YoY) in September. In September, the volume of GDP (seasonally adjusted) increased…