The Inflation Review Bulletin is an expert analysis of inflationary processes in the consumer market. The bulletin depicts the dynamics of price indices, analyzes the drivers of inflationary processes, assesses the nature of monetary conditions, and provides a short-term inflation forecast. The methodological basis for the analysis is the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) for Belarus.
Inflation accelerated noticeably at the end of 2023, and its containment may become an economic policy priority in 2024. Annual inflation increased from 2.0% YoY in September to 5.8% YoY in December 2023. A directive price reduction of October-November 2022…
The risks of a strong acceleration in price growth in 2024 are increasing despite continued low inflation in Q3-2023. Annual inflation in September updated its historical minimum value of 2.0% (YoY), and the annualized quarterly increase in consumer prices (seasonally…
Inflation remained low in Q2-2023, but domestic demand price pressures intensified. The annual increase in prices in June rewrote the historical low and amounted to 2.9% (YoY). Annual inflation will remain close to 2% (YoY) in Q3-2023, constrained by the…
Inflation indicators in Q1-2023 had multidirectional dynamics unusual for Belarus. On the one hand, consumer prices returned to growth on average after an administrative decline in Q4-2022: annualized inflation was 6.4% (QoQ) in Q1-2023. Pro-inflationary pressure has prerequisites for strengthening…