The economy enters 2025 in an overheated state, with GDP volume preliminarily estimated to be ≈2.4% above the sustainable level in Q4-2024. Excessive stimulation of consumer demand yielded low returns in terms of output growth, contributed to a widening foreign…
Belarus’s GDP growth slowed significantly in November due to a decline in industrial production. For January – November 2024, GDP grew by 3.9% YoY, and in November, it increased by ≈1% YoY. GDP volume (seasonally adjusted) in November decreased by…
Economic activity in Belarus will remain high in 2025 amid accommodative economic policies, but GDP growth will slow significantly due to resource constraints Belarus’s GDP is projected to grow by 1.7% in 2025, following a 3.9% increase in 2024. GDP…
Economic Activity in Belarus Remained High in Early Q4-2024, but Did Not Show Growth. For the first ten months of 2024, GDP grew by 4.2% YoY, and in October, it increased by ≈2.6% YoY. GDP volume (seasonally adjusted) in October…
Monetary conditions in Belarus reached a neutral level in Q3-2024. The interbank market rate remained nearly unchanged from Q2-2024 and stayed significantly below the neutral level. The National Bank’s increase in reserve requirements proved ineffective in an environment of fiscal…
The Consumer Confidence Index, calculated using both methodologies, has remained in positive zone, setting a new historical high.
Inflation in Belarus slowed in Q3-2024 and is expected to settle within the 5.5–6.0% range by the end of the year. Annual inflation stood at 6.0% YoY in September 2024. The annualized quarterly price growth (seasonally adjusted) dropped from 6.0%…
Economic Activity in Belarus Remained High in Q3-2024, but Growth Slowed Considerably. For the first nine months of 2024, GDP grew by 4.5% YoY, and in September, it increased by ≈1.6% YoY (Fig. 2.a). GDP volume (seasonally adjusted) in September…
GDP of Belarus contracted in August, hit by volatility in agricultural production and oil refining. GDP grew by 4.9% YoY in January–August 2024 and by ≈1% YoY in August alone, following an increase of ≈8.4% YoY in July (Figure 1.a).…
Monetary conditions remained moderately loose in Q2-2024, and the National Bank was late in responding to inflation risks. Real interest rates on loans and deposits remained almost unchanged compared to Q1-2024. Interest rates fell slightly short of neutral levels, which…