“Schrödinger’s inflation” poses threats to the macroeconomic stability of Belarus in the medium term. Annual inflation fell from 5.8% (YoY) in December 2023 to 5.6% (YoY) in March 2024, and annualized quarterly price growth (seasonally adjusted) fell from 8.5% (QoQ)…
Growth of Belarusian GDP exceeded expectations in Q1-2024, but its quality looks increasingly alarming for macroeconomic stability. In Q1-2024, GDP grew by 4.1% YoY, including a ≈4.4% YoY growth in March. Seasonally adjusted output grew by over 1% in March…
The Belarusian economy will slow down in 2024 and will stagnate in 2025 due to the exhaustion of extensive growth factors The Belarusian GDP will grow by 2.1% in 2024 following its 3.9% growth in 2023. The effectiveness of economic…
The leap year factor contributed to a temporary increase in the Belarusian GDP growth rate in February 2024. GDP grew by 4% (YoY) over two months of 2024: it grew by ≈5.3% (YoY) in February following a 2.8% increase (YoY)…
Belarus continued enjoying its expanded discount for the Urals oil versus the Brent oil, which was estimated at ≈ $1.9 billion in 2023 and ≈$3.6 billion in 2022–2023 altogether. In 2023, Belarus will likely continue to buy Urals oil at…
Monetary conditions will become less stimulative in 2024, but the National Bank cannot explain what degree of their strictness corresponds to ensuring macroeconomic stability. Monetary conditions remained loose in Q4-2023 mainly due to low interest rates in the credit and…
Economic activity in Belarus continued to weaken. GDP grew by 2.8% (YoY) in January 2024 following a ≈4% growth (YoY) in December 2023. Weakening dynamics in the manufacturing sector and a drop in the construction sector led to a slowdown…
According to the quarterly household monitoring data, the Consumer Confidence Index ⎯ along with its components ⎯ increased significantly and amounted to -3.6% (according to the Rosstat methodology) in February 2024.
The Belarusian economy slows down, and the Belarusian authorities may prioritize curbing inflation in 2024. GDP grew by 3.9% in 2023. The output dynamics weakened at the year-end: annual growth slowed from 6.2% YoY in Q3-2023 to ≈4.9% YoY in…
Inflation accelerated noticeably at the end of 2023, and its containment may become an economic policy priority in 2024. Annual inflation increased from 2.0% YoY in September to 5.8% YoY in December 2023. A directive price reduction of October-November 2022…