Express Analysis. May 2024
Belarus’ GDP continued growing in April, and the likelihood of the growth to get close to 3% or higher in 2024 has increased significantly. GDP grew by 5.1% YoY over the four months of 2024, and it grew by ≈7.6%…
2024
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The Consumer Confidence Index. May 2024
According to the quarterly household monitoring data, the Consumer Confidence Index — along with its components — slightly decreased and amounted to -4.8% (under the Rosstat methodology) in May 2024.
Inflation Review. Q1-2024
“Schrödinger’s inflation” poses threats to the macroeconomic stability of Belarus in the medium term. Annual inflation fell from 5.8% (YoY) in December 2023 to 5.6% (YoY) in March 2024, and annualized quarterly price growth (seasonally adjusted) fell from 8.5% (QoQ)…
Express Analysis. April 2024
Growth of Belarusian GDP exceeded expectations in Q1-2024, but its quality looks increasingly alarming for macroeconomic stability. In Q1-2024, GDP grew by 4.1% YoY, including a ≈4.4% YoY growth in March. Seasonally adjusted output grew by over 1% in March…
Macroeconomic Forecast for Belarus. April 2024
The Belarusian economy will slow down in 2024 and will stagnate in 2025 due to the exhaustion of extensive growth factors The Belarusian GDP will grow by 2.1% in 2024 following its 3.9% growth in 2023. The effectiveness of economic…
Express Analysis. March 2024
The leap year factor contributed to a temporary increase in the Belarusian GDP growth rate in February 2024. GDP grew by 4% (YoY) over two months of 2024: it grew by ≈5.3% (YoY) in February following a 2.8% increase (YoY)…
Express Analysis. Oil rents are back. Part 2
Belarus continued enjoying its expanded discount for the Urals oil versus the Brent oil, which was estimated at ≈ $1.9 billion in 2023 and ≈$3.6 billion in 2022–2023 altogether. In 2023, Belarus will likely continue to buy Urals oil at…
Monetary Environment Review Q4-2023
Monetary conditions will become less stimulative in 2024, but the National Bank cannot explain what degree of their strictness corresponds to ensuring macroeconomic stability. Monetary conditions remained loose in Q4-2023 mainly due to low interest rates in the credit and…
Express Analysis. February 2024
Economic activity in Belarus continued to weaken. GDP grew by 2.8% (YoY) in January 2024 following a ≈4% growth (YoY) in December 2023. Weakening dynamics in the manufacturing sector and a drop in the construction sector led to a slowdown…