The scale of economic overheating in Belarus increased in Q1-2025, while the risk of severe turbulence in the event of a sharp deterioration in the situation in the global or Russian economy has risen markedly. In Q1-2025, GDP grew by…
Over the first two months of 2025, GDP grew by 3.1% YoY, while separately in February – by ≈2.5% YoY after +3.7% YoY in January. The slowdown in annual growth was due to the calendar factor. Adjusted for seasonality, GDP…
Economic activity in Belarus remained high at the beginning of the current year. Belarus’s GDP grew by 3.7% YoY in January 2025 after increasing by 4.7% YoY in December 2024. The GDP volume (seasonally adjusted) in January 2025 declined by…
The consumer confidence index in Belarus has once again reached a historical high: for the first time according to Rosstat’s methodology, it has reached positive values (2%), while according to Eurostat’s methodology, it strengthened to 3%.
Monetary conditions were neutral in Q4-2024, insufficient to cool overheated demand. Interest rates on loans and deposits exceeded neutral levels in Q4-2024, driven by rising interest rates in Russia. This factor, independent of the National Bank’s monetary policy, will continue…
The economy enters 2025 in an overheated state, with GDP volume preliminarily estimated to be ≈2.4% above the sustainable level in Q4-2024. Excessive stimulation of consumer demand yielded low returns in terms of output growth, contributed to a widening foreign…